Summer brings a slower pace for N.S. political parties, but challenges lurk

The political barbecue circuit is in full swing in Nova Scotia.

Outside of an election year, summer tends to be a slower time for the parties. But this season, there is plenty to keep the Progressive Conservatives, NDP, and Liberals busy before the legislature resumes in the fall.

For Premier Tim Houston and his team, the fallout from this year’s budget continues. However, a recent byelection win in Cheticamp-Margarees-Pleasant Bay provided a boost for the Tories.

While early election-night returns suggested a tight race with the Liberals, advance polls ultimately proved that the PCs still have the most effective local campaign organization in the province.

While adding another district means more local demands for the government to manage, winning is always preferable to dealing with the political fallout of a loss.

The PCs might be breathing a bit easier, but the ongoing dispute over library funding and looming branch closures — all in Tory districts — upcoming labour talks with teachers and nurses, and continued public concerns about affordability mean there’s not much wiggle room for the government.

With a well-documented revenue problem and a projected budget calling for twice as many cuts as this year’s, Houston will likely focus heavily on the energy and natural resource sectors to score wins where he can get them.

Meanwhile, he will continue to remind voters of past achievements, such as the new Cape Breton medical school, every chance he gets.

For the Official Opposition NDP, the summer challenge remains the same as it has been since the last provincial election — how to expand their support.

Leader Claudia Chender and her team saw a polling bump during the winter budget session. Recent numbers show growing support for Chender in particular, and the party in general, to a degree that should help attract potential candidates for the next election.

But the seat gap between the PCs and NDP is wide. The NDP cannot rely on appearing as a government-in-waiting.

To move forward, the party would do well to follow the PC model from 2021 by presenting distinct policy ideas that clearly separate them from the government. They must show how they would govern differently, particularly to voters in rural areas who have historically not voted NDP.

The NDP was not a factor in the recent byelection.

While that is not a surprise given the region’s voting history, it highlights their core challenge. Former Premier Darrell Dexter formed Nova Scotia’s only NDP government by successfully building a broad coalition across urban and rural parts of the mainland, as well as Cape Breton.

The Liberals, meanwhile, fell short of a byelection win, but they felt they competed well.

It’s been a long few years for the party. The 2024 general election left them with two seats. The unpopularity of Justin Trudeau had already damaged their provincial prospects before that.

N.S. Liberal leadership convention

But much of this summer will be spent trying to turn the corner.

The Liberals will hold a leadership convention this November — their third in less than six years.

So far, Richmond County Deputy Warden Amanda Mombourquette is the only official candidate, though MLA Becky Druhan — a former PC cabinet minister who sat as an Independent before joining the Liberals—has announced her intention to run.

A competitive leadership race that attracts attention — and potentially new members — to the party, and a resurgent federal brand under Prime Minister Mark Carney are the sort of things that can further start to build hope for the party.

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